The property market bottom is being called by one of the industry’s best-known voices, and the claim rests on a number that official data does not support. An agency chief with four decades in the business says this is the eighth correction he has lived through, and the fastest. His view is that major cities are close to their lowest point.
That is a big call, and it deserves a proper test rather than a headline.
The gap between 10-15 per cent and single digits
Here is the first thing to separate. The outlook says prices in most large metropolitan areas have fallen 10 to 15 per cent over the last six months, with some pockets down 20 per cent. Official data providers, by contrast, show only single-digit declines.
Both can be partly true. Index providers smooth results across every property type and suburb, so they tend to move slowly. An agency network sees what sold, what was withdrawn and what buyers actually paid, which can run ahead of the indices. But it can also reflect a sales-floor view of the weakest listings.
Until the published indices catch up, treat the steeper figure as one operator’s read of his own market, not a settled fact.
What a bottom would actually need
A bottom is not declared by one executive. It shows up when a few things stop getting worse at the same time:
- Rate expectations stabilise. Buyers need to believe the next move in the cash rate is not up.
- Serviceability stops tightening. Lenders’ assessment rates and buffers cap how much people can borrow, whatever the asking price says.
- Buyer confidence turns. Surveys of consumer and buyer sentiment usually lift before prices do.
- Stock clears. Listings build up when sellers cannot get their price. A real bottom tends to coincide with fewer unsold properties, not just fewer buyers.
None of these are confirmed in the material behind this outlook. That does not make the call wrong. It means the evidence offered is mostly history: past cycles ended, so this one will too.
Why past cycles are a weaker guide this time
Comparing today with earlier corrections assumes the same forces are at work. Borrowers today carry larger loans relative to income, and repayments are sensitive to every rate move. That is part of why stress shows up in other places first, such as home loan complaints reaching a record and regional borrowers carrying more of the arrears risk.
If stress is still building in credit, a price floor can be a moving target.
Commentary has split along predictable lines
Coverage of this outlook has divided into two camps. One treats the bottom-calling as news in its own right and leads with the suburb list. The other asks whether the claim holds up against clearance rates, listings, rate expectations and serviceability limits.
The second approach is the more useful one for anyone with a mortgage or a deposit. A list of suburbs tells you where an agent thinks growth will land. It does not tell you whether the broader market has stopped falling.
The 40 suburbs: what the examples do and do not show
The outlook names 40 suburbs and towns across NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania that it expects to rise over the next year, mixing city and regional locations. The examples give a sense of the logic.
- Campsie (NSW) is compared with Marrickville, a suburb that has already gentrified.
- Narooma (NSW) has a house median of $990,000 and a new luxury motel.
- Mildura (Victoria) is forecast to grow from 56,792 residents in 2021 to over 66,000 by 2046, with jobs up 26.5 per cent from 2026 to 2046.
- Chigwell (Tasmania) has house values just above $600,000 and a 5.3 per cent rental return.
- Mayfield (Tasmania) has medians under $530,000, a 27.9 per cent rise last year and yields near 5.6 per cent.
The pattern is lower entry prices, rental yields that cover more of the holding cost, and population or job growth stories. That is a sensible screen. It is also a screen, not a forecast. A suburb with a strong yield and a rising population can still fall if the wider market is not done correcting.
One more caution. Tasmania’s Mayfield rose 27.9 per cent last year, so the easy gains may already be in the price.
The catch for buyers
Calling a bottom early is cheap for the person calling it and expensive for the person who acts on it. Buying ahead of a floor means absorbing further falls with a smaller equity buffer.
The flip side is real too. Waiting for confirmation usually means paying more once confirmation arrives. The choice is a trade-off, not a free option either way.
A more defensible approach is to stress-test your own position first. Check your loan at a higher rate than today’s, confirm you have a cash buffer, and treat any suburb pick as a shortlist to research, not a purchase signal. If you are weighing supply-side options, see why new-build investor demand is weak even with tax breaks.
Bottom line
The bottom-is-near argument is plausible but unproven. The size of the fall is disputed, the rate path is unresolved, and the evidence offered is mostly past cycles. The more useful signals to watch over the next few months are clearance rates, listing volumes, serviceability settings and sentiment surveys. If those turn together, the call will look right. If they do not, it will look early.
For a wider primer on how downturns, auctions and prices connect, read our guide to house prices, downturns and auction clearance. And if you want the weekly signal without the noise, subscribe to the newsletter.
General info, not financial advice.
