Australians want cheaper homes, and most of them are afraid of what that would actually look like. A new bank survey puts numbers on the contradiction: 67 per cent of respondents worry prices may fall further, even though 82 per cent say the average Australian cannot realistically afford to own a home.
That is not a quirk of polling. It is the central bind in Australian housing, and it shapes how far any government can go.
Two views held at the same time
The survey found that about 68 per cent of Australians think the country would benefit if prices dropped. Almost the same share, 67 per cent, are concerned values could slide further. Both can be true for one person, and often are.
The split by age is clear:
- Gen Z: 78 per cent back lower prices
- Millennials: 69 per cent
- Gen X: 67 per cent
- Baby Boomers: 58 per cent
Support fades as people accumulate equity. That is what you would expect, and it is also the point.
Why mortgaged owners are the nervous group
Among existing homeowners, 62 per cent welcome falling prices. But anxiety about further drops peaks among those with a mortgage, at 75 per cent.
Here’s the catch. A homeowner with a large loan relative to their property value has the least room to absorb a decline. Equity is the buffer that lets you refinance, sell or ride out a rough patch. Thin equity means a smaller price fall can bite sooner. Owners who bought recently, at higher prices and higher borrowing levels, sit closest to that edge.
So the same person can sincerely say “homes should be cheaper” and “please don’t let mine fall.” Those are different questions: one is about the country, the other is about a balance sheet. We have looked before at how that risk builds when negative equity looms as another rate rise nears.
Pessimism about getting in
The access numbers are stark. Some 82 per cent say the average Australian cannot realistically afford to own a home, and 65 per cent of first home buyers expect they will never buy without an inheritance.
Treat that last figure carefully. It measures expectation, not outcome, and sentiment surveys tend to run darker than what people eventually do. Still, a generation that has priced itself out in its own mind changes behaviour. It saves differently, votes differently and leans harder on family money. That feeds back into demand and the wealth gap between those with and without help.
What respondents want instead of price cuts
When asked to rank remedies, people did not simply ask for lower prices. The top answers were:
- More affordable housing in established suburbs: 52 per cent
- Lower stamp duty and other purchase costs: 48 per cent
- Stronger wage growth: 39 per cent
- Better transport to outer and regional areas: 31 per cent
This is useful. Most of these fixes do not require prices to fall. They work on the gap between income and price, or on the upfront cost of buying. Stamp duty relief and supply in established areas are the sort of changes that can ease entry without asking mortgaged owners to wear a loss. That is the politically workable path, and the survey suggests the public already sees it.
What this implies for policy and the pace of any correction
A few things follow, and none of them are certain.
Policy will favour slow fixes. If a large group of voters holds debt and fears falls, governments have little appetite for measures that deliberately push prices down. Expect emphasis on supply, wages and transaction costs over anything that engineers a sharp reset.
Any correction is likely to be uneven. Owners with low debt can wait. Owners with high debt may be forced sellers if rates rise or incomes tighten. The pace depends less on sentiment and more on how many households are stretched at the same time. Risk around rates is part of that picture, as the RBA’s own concerns about credibility and further hikes show.
Forecasts still lean up. A senior executive at the bank behind the survey stressed that property moves in cycles and ownership is a long commitment. She noted the bank’s economists forecast national prices rising 3 per cent in 2027, despite recent declines. That is a forecast, not a promise, and it sits oddly beside a public that expects the opposite.
Rule of thumb for readers
If you hold a mortgage, test your position against a price fall and a higher rate at the same time, not one at a time. If you are trying to buy, the more realistic gains come from deposit size, borrowing capacity and purchase costs, not from waiting for a collapse that few policy settings are designed to deliver.
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General info, not financial advice.
