Labor says it will review Victoria's two overseas-buyer taxes if re-elected. The harder question is whether that brings in new homes or just more bidders.
Victoria has given first-home buyers breathing room. The bigger test is whether other capitals can get the same relief without worsening the housing shortage.
Higher rates are already squeezing buyers. If tax settings shift as well, two of the most popular paths into home ownership could get a lot harder, but the real damage may not show up straight away.
Homes inside Labor’s buyer scheme caps have jumped 6.7% in six months. That may get buyers in sooner, but it could also leave them thinner on margin if rates bite again.
Real estate businesses can already enrol with AUSTRAC before the 1 July 2026 deadline. The real risk is treating a major compliance shift like a paperwork exercise.
A $1bn super scandal has forced Canberra to act, but the fix could shift costs and risks across the whole system before investors know where the line is drawn.