Market Signals

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Market Signals

House price growth Australia: why a decade of doubling is a fragile bet

New modelling projects hundreds of suburbs doubling by 2036. The maths leans on past trends, and the next decade looks structurally different.
Market Signals

Property sentiment index flips negative as rates bite

A NAB survey of property professionals now sees house prices sliding 4.2% over a year, and the constraint has moved from supply to borrowing costs.
Market Signals

Regional NSW property growth: scarcity or thin volumes?

Some unexpected towns have posted double-digit gains, but a rise on few sales can mislead investors chasing the trend.
Market Signals

Home sales down 20.9 per cent: price data is the last to know

Sales are down about a fifth, yet values have only slipped for six months. The gap between the two may be hiding the real damage.
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Market Signals

Property price falls Australia: how far to erase pandemic gains

Melbourne needs a 10% drop to hit pre-Covid levels. Perth could fall 20% and still be at April 2025 prices. The buffer gap is wider than the headlines suggest.
Market Signals

Housing workforce shortage: 36,000 apprentices, 126,000 tradies short

Record apprenticeship commencements can't close a 126,000-worker gap widening faster than new entrants qualify, the supply constraint no zoning reform can fix.
Market Signals

Property settlement failures rise as buyers walk away betting on 20pc drop

Finance-approved buyers are forfeiting deposits and abandoning contracts in a gamble that prices will fall further, but the numbers suggest they may be wrong.
Market Signals

Luxury apartment demand softens as major developer posts loss

A top-tier developer's writedowns signal weaker appetite at the premium end, and fewer new projects ahead.
Market Signals

Chinese capital exit: $900m office tower sale tests CBD appetite

A major insurer's retreat from Sydney's Salesforce Tower raises the question: capital controls, or a wider rethink of office risk?
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Market Signals

Housing construction slowdown: delayed shockwave building in credit, spending

A major bank warns the post-budget housing slump's full impact is still unfolding, but the data shows who gets hit first.
Market Signals

Mortgage lending falls $5.4bn: serviceability or cycle?

Investor loan commitments just posted their steepest dollar drop in a decade. The question isn't whether demand cooled, it's whether the mix coming back looks anything like the market that stalled.
Market Signals

Investor lending drops 8.6% as negative gearing reform clears the market

New ABS data shows the sharpest quarterly fall in investor loan commitments since 2022, but the full supply-side consequence won't show for months.
Market Signals

Auction clearance rates split: prestige holds, mid-market stalls

Melbourne and Sydney clearance rates are falling, but top-end properties still attract multiple bidders while mid-tier stock sits. The gap tells you where price pressure lands next.
Market Signals

Investor loan sizes hit records in smaller states: stretch or strength?

Loan sizes are climbing to new highs in states where investor activity remains firm, but the mechanics behind those numbers matter more than the headline.
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Market Signals

Victoria investor exodus doubles: landlord sales outpace buyers two-to-one

Auction data shows 30.5% of sellers are landlords, but just 16% of buyers are investors, and first-home buyers are now on track to overtake investor lending by year's end.
Market Signals

Housing market downturn: Perth, Brisbane cushion vs Melbourne risk

Perth could fall 20% and still hold April 2025 values. Melbourne loses its pandemic buffer after 10%.
Market Signals

Bank mortgage exposure: why Australia’s biggest home lender faces the steepest fall

One major bank holds 25% of the national mortgage book. What happens when house prices drop another 10%?
Market Signals

Consumer spending holds up as sentiment crashes to historic lows

Households are spending like the economy is fine, but feeling like it isn't, and that gap is now the biggest risk the RBA faces.

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